Brexit

2016-06-25

EU Referendum - Vote Leave wins

So the UK has voted to leave the European Union. David Cameron has completely misjudged this when he announced the referendum. And from my point of view the Brits have completely misjudged their situation within the EU. They will have to learn it the hard way when they are on their own.

Pride and Prejudice

What you hear a lot these days is "making Britain great again", returning back "to glory" and so on. What that means exactly was of course never said, but people fell for it. There was always some anti-European feeling in Britain, and this campaign brought out the worst of it. National pride vs bland facts is literally a no-brainer.

National pride and prejudice against anything foreign is not a good base for running a nation. Actually this is rather a breeding ground for fascism. But the good thing is that the Brits were never very receptive to fascists.

Today the world has moved on and most countries have learned that global problems are best solved together. It is the people of yesterday that think one nation does better alone.

As it looks it was the older generation with less education that went for leave, whereas the young and educated went for remain. Some of the latter are seeing it now as the older generation destroying the future of the young ones. Which is probably true.

Leave and take control...over what?

The slogan "take control" implied that the UK has lost control. But the UK was a sovereign state, and the EU rules and regulations concern mostly the common market, the interior was controlled by the UK government. If the Brits think they can take control over the global marked they are completely wrong. To stay in the common marked they still need to adapt EU guidelines, and now they don't have a say in that anymore.

Also, if they want access to the common market Britain will still have to pay into the EU , and also they have to accept the freedom of workers migration, two things that also the reclusive nations of Switzerland an Norway had to accept.

In other words: not much will change. And the control is rather given up than taken back.

The celtic tiger will rise again

Big companies want to settle in legal certainity. The UK won't have that for the next few years. Also, if someone wants to get into the EU market they want to do it from a EU country.

Which means that companies think twice before they invest now in the UK, and rather go one island further into Ireland. The Brexit is a big slap in the face of interested companies. Some companies might even shut down their UK facilities and move into the EU.

This could lead to a further decline of the British industry, and Ireland will be the winner.

Scotland quits

It was in actual fact England and Wales who voted for the Brexit, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain.

Nicola Sturgeon already announced that the Scots will do another referendum to separate from the UK. And this time I'm sure the result will be different. In the long term Scotland will be an independent country within the EU.

And Northern Ireland?

The result of the referendum made Sinn Fein already speculating about bringing Northern Ireland into the Republic of Ireland. This has all the potential to bring back trouble, and frankly I don't really want to think about the consequences there.

The country is divided

The result from the referendum is that there is a big rift in the country, which has all the potential to cause social and political trouble. And this is independent of the outcome.

But the fact that Britain leaves the safe haven of the EU will further divide the country, as an ecoomical decline is rather certain. It was a big mistake to do this referendum, and the outcome is the worst possible one. The next few generations will have to suffer for it.